Will the restaurant industry survive? Yes, but it will be a very different one

COMMENT

It comes in waves, even for the most resilient of us. Waves of loss, waves of grief, waves of fear. Fear for ourselves, our friends, our family. Moments of normality are overshadowed by the crushing mass of this uncertain new reality. But it is through our connection with others, created in a time of cosy dinners, of rambling, drunk chats at the bar, of chance encounters with strangers, of gentle pats on the back and big generous hugs that we find comfort. Now more than ever we need these friendships.

So much of these interactions were centred around our restaurants, cafes and bars. It is why we in the hospitality business did what we did – to be at the centre of this, to live vicariously through those enjoying our service, to be the conductor of these connections. Now we can't.

We can only offer takeaway. It is a one-way interaction generally, though with social media we can see some feedback in real time. But it is all we have now. It is our new reality. For how long – we don't really know, but probably longer than any of us would like. Going to a restaurant was never just about the food. It was about the service, the ambiance, the small touches. All of that has gone, for the time being.

Restaurant take away will be a life saver for those clinging to their hospitality businesses, but as this lockdown continues from days into months, people will become more and more frugal. It is going to be tough. The crucial key in all this is that our supply lines and logistics stay strong. The true heroes of this time will not be the chefs but will be the producers that keep the supply of goods coming. The vegetable growers, the dairy industry, the meat industry, the fisheries – these will be the people that will keep us going.

What happens after?

We can't be absolutely sure, but one thing we do know is that it won't be as before. At the end of this we (both we citizens and our governments) will be poorer. How poor will be determined by how long this goes on for. There will certainly be an eagerness from people to reclaim their lost social lives, and certainly they will be well over cooking for themselves, but it will be tempered by a real lack of capital. Some will come out of this okay, a few may even do well, but a very large group, including many from the aspirational class, those who chose to define their status in society by what they purchased and where they ate, will be in difficult financial situations.

Many times, in recent news reports, I have heard the phrase "will the restaurant industry survive?". Yes of course there will be a restaurant industry post Covid19, but it will be a very different one. There will certainly be fewer restaurants. Many restaurants will not be re-opening after this, but there will be opportunities for those who are in a position to re-open. We will always talk of restaurants in a pre and post COVID-19 framework.

There may hopefully be some government-backed schemes to help businesses re-open, assuming governments are in a position to do so. International travel won't have the ease of access that we had grown so used to, so the focus will be on domestic travel and tourism. As a result, global restaurant guides will be of less importance, but local guides will still be strong. This is all in the immediate years following the end of this virus. The following decade could well be one of huge growth and potential. Let's hope that the new restaurant paradigm created uses this opportunity to address the many problems with the old restaurant model, a model that was essentially broken.

We have been living very large, compared to many of the poorer and conflict ridden parts of the world, and this virus has been the great leveller. The aftermath of this could be a chance for a great reset in our society.

Michael Ryan is the owner-chef of Provenance restaurant in Beechworth, Victoria.